Are we dealing with ranking deflation here?

Recently I see a lot of players which peak in rapid is 2000 or more, and in blitz is 1900-2000 or more, and now they're around only 1700-1800 blitz rating.

It is obvious that their skills are higher than most of the 1700 blitz players. Have you noticed this too? I am asking players on similar level.

What is the reason for this? But please just don't sell me this crap that people have lost skills, it's not just that. It's huge, a lot of players have it, I see it often in my opponents. Maybe the 1900-2000 blitz ranking is now harder to achieve and maintain here on Lichess, so many players are now unable to maintain their ranking at this level and drop to 1700-1800?

Your thoughts?

The solution is to play unrated and not worry about it. That way, I'll be able to maintain my current rating even when I no longer remember my dog's name and get to laugh at the same jokes repeatedly.

@Szczentrzeburza said in #1:

Good question...

It's definitely possible, I suppose?

A few years ago, Lichess changed their points allocation to where a win only gets you about 5 points against an equally rated opponent.

It used to be that you got about 10 points for a win against an equally rated opponent.

So, before, if someone had a strong run for a few weeks, and played about 60 games...(call it 40-20 instead of the normal 30-30)...then that's 200 points.

Today, however, that would only be 100 points.

So, yeah, there is definitely a possibility that ratings will slowly deflate for the accounts who were here before that change was made.

If you only get 10 points for winning, isn't it also true that you only lose 10 for losing? That wouldn't seem to explain a trend, if trend there be.

Amount of pointas has no changed. it varies with your RD though. anyway lichess intentionally gears median towards 1500 so yes changes in pools constitution can leads rating inflation/deflation like during covid pandemic.

Mostlike OP observation is due to random factors.

@Szczentrzeburza said in #1:
> Recently I see a lot of players which peak in rapid is 2000 or more, and in blitz is 1900-2000 or more, and now they're around only 1700-1800 blitz rating.

> Your thoughts?

i have no idea, they could be deflating, but these threads are common. Sometimes they say ratings are increasing and sometimes they say ratings are decreasing. No matter what direction the topic says, someone will reply with they are seeing the opposite.

@petri999 said in #5:
> Amount of pointas has no changed. it varies with your RD though.

it varies with your RD and since they lowered the RD floor 4 years ago, the amount of points did reduce for regular players.

@Noflaps said in #4:
> If you only get 10 points for winning, isn't it also true that you only lose 10 for losing? That wouldn't seem to explain a trend, if trend there be.

i believe you are right and from memory the reason for the RD floor being lowered wasn't related to inflation or deflation, it was to reduce the height of swings.

@Szczentrzeburza said in #1:
> don't sell me this crap that people have lost skills

A player's rating in the Elo and Glicko systems is determined relative to the other players in the pool. So if your skill stays the same but the average player in the pool becomes stronger, your rating drops.

How could the average strength of the blitz lichess pool have improved?
Speculation: this could have to do with the massive influx of beginner-level players who started during Corona: the ones who stick with chess and are still part of the pool are steadily improving, pushing the average strength of the pool. At the same time, the influx of beginner-level players (who would counteract this effect) slowed down after the pandemic.

I'm not saying this is the case, and I'm not even sure there's evidence for the effect the OP claims, but it would be a possible explanation I guess.

You mean the inflation turns normal?

If you want to record deflation over time, then regularly check the percentiles.

I feel that there's very mild deflation at most, if any.

Someone did an analysis of the rating of the Maia bots over time and detected that their rating did deflate.